My general thoughts are this: nobody is coming out to vote for Catrina Colorada Day Of The Dead Shirt Trump in 2020 that wasn’t voting for him in 2016. In other words, I don’t see any sort of “secret” Trump supporters. Since 2004 right around 60M people voted for the R in each election. The Democrats have had 60-70M. In 2016 I honestly think Clinton lost because she was very dumb in running her campaign. But, also because I think so many people didn’t think Trump had a chance that they didn’t go out to vote. The rise in his numbers are concerning, I grant that. But logically, I still think the Dems get a big uptick in voter turnout this year.
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The curveball is COVID. I agree that Trump supporters are more bombastic than most liberal supporters. Also, don’t discount Biden’s silent support. Recall that Bernie winning the primaries was a foregone conclusion at one point. Remember reading articles about “The Democratic Establishment will need to accept that Catrina Colorada Day Of The Dead Shirt Sanders will be the nominee”. But then South Carolina happened…I think it will be close enough to cause discomfort leading up to the election. The key though is that Biden really just needs to pull out a couple of states. Trump has to practically sweep them to win.
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