Saying that you don’t have to vote because of So Beautiful Stitch Drink Coca Cola Shirt polling is like saying. That you don’t have to vote because you were quite certain you were going to vote yesterday. It’s not just that people misinterpret the probabilities, they completely miss the point of the exercise. People are so dumb about statistics. Like, if 100% of prognosticators predict the Patriots will beat the Browns. That does not mean the Patriots have a 100% chance of victory. Lots of models severely underestimated Trump’s chances because their models assumed polling error was uncorrelated between states, ruling out the possibility that every state might break in the same direction.
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Funnily enough, the so caused the 2008 financial crisis. In 2016, all the holes in the Swiss cheese lined up to allow Trump to pull out a tiny victory in some key states to win the electoral college. Reasons for this include: Trump managed to fire up a very passionate base, Hillary failed to do that. More left-wing elements got mad at the DNC over how they handled Sanders during the primary, leading a not-insignificant portion of So Beautiful Stitch Drink Coca Cola Shirt them to at least sit out the election. Hillary took the win as a given and failed to campaign properly in important areas like urban minority neighborhoods. That meant the black vote didn’t turn out the numbers it should have.
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